What If You’re Looking at the Wrong Evidence?

Last night I sat down with someone who is preparing for their first performance, and as we talked it became clear that they were carrying the same contradiction I see so often in coaching. Here was a person who had spent months showing up to practice, learning new skills, pushing through discomfort, becoming more confident in their body, and preparing to do something that would have felt completely out of reach not very long ago, yet the thing occupying most of their attention was the fact that the scale had not changed in the way they thought it should.

The comment wasn’t dramatic, and it wasn’t self-pitying. If anything, it sounded familiar, the kind of quiet disappointment that arrives when effort and expectation fail to shake hands.

"I’ve been working so hard, and my weight hasn’t changed."

As we talked, I found myself wondering how often this happens, not just in health and fitness, but everywhere. We work toward something meaningful, we become stronger, more capable, more resilient, more willing to take risks, and then somehow convince ourselves that none of it counts because the evidence we were hoping to see showed up in a different form.

So I asked a simple question.

"What would the version of you from a year ago think about what you’re doing tomorrow?"

Not what would they think about the scale, not what would they think about your measurements, not what would they think about your body fat percentage. What would they think about the fact that tomorrow you will step onto a stage and perform?

The conversation changed almost immediately.

We started talking about who they were a year ago, what felt difficult then, what felt impossible then, and how differently they moved through the world now. The more we talked, the more obvious it became that the person sitting across from me had been measuring progress with a ruler that was far too small for the transformation that had actually taken place.

I think about this often in coaching, because one of the biggest surprises of my career has been discovering how rarely people need more information. Most of the people I work with are intelligent, thoughtful, introspective people. They have read the books, listened to the podcasts, followed the experts, saved the posts, and accumulated enough knowledge to fill several lifetimes. What they struggle with is not a lack of information, but a tendency to overlook their own evidence:

The evidence that they are sleeping better.

The evidence that they recover faster.

The evidence that they trust themselves more.

The evidence that they set boundaries they once avoided.

The evidence that they signed up for the thing that scared them.

The evidence that they kept going after a setback instead of deciding they had failed.

The evidence that they have become a different person.

One of the articles we reviewed together listed several ways to measure progress that have nothing to do with pounds, and as we worked through it I watched the shift happen in real time. What began as a conversation about what wasn’t changing gradually became a conversation about everything that was. Confidence had changed. Consistency had changed. Identity had changed. Their relationship with movement had changed. Their willingness to be seen had changed. Their belief in what they were capable of had changed...those things matter.

In fact, I would argue that those things are often the whole story, while the numbers we obsess over are little more than supporting characters.

Perhaps that is why my relationship with coaching has changed so much over the years. Early on, I thought my job was primarily educational. I thought if I could explain things clearly enough, provide enough resources, answer enough questions, and create a solid enough plan, people would naturally follow through. Years of coaching have made me far more patient than that. They have also made me far more hopeful!

Because what I have learned is that most people are not failing to change. More often, they are failing to recognize the ways they have already changed. They are collecting evidence, every single day, but dismissing it because it doesn’t match the picture they expected to see.

Sometimes the most valuable thing a coach can do is hold up a mirror and help someone recognize themselves. Not the person they wish they were, not the person they think they should be. The person they have already become, and sometimes, that recognition changes everything.

NBC-HWC | ACSM-CPT

Mental PEAKS: When the Metric Becomes the Mission

Researchers have long recognized a phenomenon sometimes referred to as Goodhart’s Law: when a measure becomes the target, it often stops being a useful measure. While the concept originated in economics and public policy, it shows up everywhere in health and fitness.

A person starts exercising because they want more energy, better health, greater strength, or the ability to fully participate in life. Over time, however, the metric intended to track progress can quietly become the entire focus. Weight replaces health. Calories replace nourishment. Steps replace movement. Productivity replaces purpose.

The result is that people can find themselves making meaningful progress while simultaneously feeling as though they are failing. Studies in health psychology suggest that people who focus exclusively on outcome measures, especially those that change slowly or are influenced by factors outside their control, often experience greater frustration and lower satisfaction than those who also recognize process-oriented indicators of success.

In other words, when we become fixated on a single number, we risk missing the broader evidence that change is occurring. The person who signs up for their first performance, returns to exercise after a difficult season, learns a new skill, sets a boundary, prioritizes sleep, or develops a more compassionate relationship with themselves may be making profound progress, even if the scale remains unchanged.

Sometimes the challenge is not that growth isn’t happening. The challenge is that we are measuring the wrong thing. One simple way to test this is to ask, “What did I hope this number would prove?” If the scale was supposed to prove that you are stronger, more consistent, more capable, more confident, or more at home in your body, look for direct evidence of those things instead.

Track what you can do, how you recover, what feels easier, what you are willing to try, what you no longer avoid, and how quickly you return after disruption. The metric may still offer information, but it should not be allowed to overrule the lived evidence of becoming.

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A Day of Healing Arts returns June 13 at Tahoe Flow Arts & Fitness! Join us for an immersive day of workshops, wellness, movement, and community, culminating in an unforgettable evening featuring a chef-curated tasting experience by Chef Abi Collomb, live performances, glow flow, and a garden dance party, all supporting the Kelly Smiley Youth Scholarship Fund. Learn more

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